Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Miriam Scheel, Chapter 10, Question 6

Every time we learn about inflation, recession and/or the Great Depression there is this solution presented that seems to be so wise and true and always working: Simply increase the government spending; give the people money to spend. It sounds like "Now we know how to deal with these unlucky problems. We are not going to make the same silly, childish mistakeBs they did back then." But in reality it is a lot more complicated and complex; a lot more can go horribly wrong, and we are by far not as superior and omniscient as it seems. We know few about what causes the cycles of recession, and what exactly makes them turn into a depression. And we can't know if this universal cure will heal the economy each time.

Wheelan emphasizes this point (besides other important points) when he says: "Monetary policy is tricky business. Done right, it facilitates economic growth and cushions the economy from shocks that might otherwise wreak havoc. Done wrong, it can cause pain and misery. Is it possible that all the recent unconventional actions at the Federal Reserve have merely set the stage for another set of problems? Absolutely. It's more likely, at least based on evidence so far, that the Fed averted a more serious crisis and spares a great deal of human suffering as a result."

He talks about how, when done wrong the same method can cause suffering, even if, when done right it helps to a healthy and strong economy. The problem here is the thin line between right and wrong. We can't know ahead of time on which side of the line we are standing. Wheelan says that the method that eventually prevented a likely second Great Depression could as well have caused the same one to happen.


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